The GSS also show some interesting patterns. First, there were no racial differences in attitudes towards same sex marriage 20 years ago. Indeed, the only religious differences were that fundamentalists were more opposed than people with other religious beliefs. Over the last two decades, racial and religious differences emerged because some groups liberalized (whites, Catholics, mainline Protestants), and others did not (African Americans, Other ethnicities, and sectarian Protestants). Notably, African American conservatism does not seem to be only a function of religiosity (the models are complicated, and available on request). Other cultural factors are at work which caused African Americans to hold similar values in 2008 that they held in 1988.

Of course, Professor Cadge is absolutely correct in pointing out that the Prop 8 result is not really unexpected given what we know about American public opinion. In 2006, GSS data have just under 35% of Americans supporting same sex marriage. However, another 14% are neutral on the issue. But we do think that California will somehow be more liberal. Why do we think California is liberal? This is the state that gave us Nixon and Reagan. Tom Metzger, a white supremacist, made the Democratic ticket in a congressional election in California. Outside of the predictable liberal oases, California is Western Oklahoma. Steinbeck wasn’t purely fiction.

And, more importantly, let’s not forget that both Presidential candidates disavowed support for same sex marriage. They did so publicly, in California, in a disturbing (to people who cherish a seperation of church and state) genuflection to a fundamentalist minister during what amounted to a religious inquisition of the candidates’ positional piety.

GSS data also show that the issue of same sex marriage is increasingly a religious issue. People with no religion (15% of Americans), Jews, Catholics, and liberal Protestants are increasingly comfortable with marriage rights. Fundamentalist Christians lag behind and now constitute the vast majority of opponants. Since several religious groups openly endorse same sex marriage—including Obama’s former denomination the United Church of Christ, the Unitarian Universalists, and one of the largest Reformed Jewish confederations—this seems to be a clear issue of religious freedom, and should be beyond the prejudice of the ballot box.

Take a look at the sample that’s underlying that 70% figure: It’s tiny! The CNN exit poll is based on 2,240 respondents. Supposedly, 10% of California voters are African-Americans, that’s a whopping 224 people. That’s a very small sample size but it doesn’t end there. Let’s look at the sampling methodology. Although CNN claims “scientific statistical procedures,” on closer inspection we find that what is randomly selected are the precincts, not the people. So, this is a small, non-random sample. This means that, at best, we can say that 70% of African-American respondents to the CNN exit poll voted for Prop 8. Given the problems with the sample, we cannot say anything based on this sample about all African-American voters in California. The sample results cannot be projected to the population.